基于總體沖突概率和三維布朗運動的沖突探測算法
doi: 10.11999/JEIT140363
基金項目:
國家科技支撐計劃(2011BAH24B12)和國家自然科學(xué)基金委員會與中國民航局聯(lián)合資助項目(U1233109)資助課題
Conflict Detection Algorithm Based on Overall Conflict Probability and Three Dimensional Brownian Motion
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摘要: 隨著空中交通流量的增加，沖突探測在空中交通管理系統(tǒng)中的作用越來越重要。該文提出了一種概率型沖突探測算法，計算向前看時間內(nèi)的總體沖突概率?；陲w機3維布朗運動模型，飛機的預(yù)測航跡可以表示為確定航跡外加布朗運動擾動。對于兩飛機速度為常值的運動情況，沖突概率可以表示為做布朗運動的飛機進入運動的飛機保護區(qū)的概率，使用坐標(biāo)變換和Bachelier-Levy定理進行估計；對于兩飛機運動為非勻速運動情況，預(yù)測航跡則可以使用足夠多速度為分段常值的片段來近似，計算出每一片段內(nèi)的沖突概率，并給出了向前看時間內(nèi)總體沖突概率的上下界。與蒙特卡羅仿真結(jié)果比較，算法滿足沖突探測精度要求，對及時發(fā)現(xiàn)沖突和沖突解決具有重要意義。
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關(guān)鍵詞:
- 空中交通管理系統(tǒng) /
- 總體沖突概率 /
- 3維布朗運動 /
- 坐標(biāo)變換 /
- Bachelier-Levy定理
Abstract: With the increasing of the air traffic flow, conflict detection plays an increasingly important role in air traffic management system. A probabilistic conflict detection algorithm is proposed. Overall conflict probability in look-ahead time is calculated. The aircraft predicted trajectory is expressed as deterministic trajectory plus a Brownian motion perturbation. For the case of constant aircraft speed, conflict probability is expressed as the probability of an aircraft with Brownian motion perturbation entering a time-varying moving protection zone, the probability is approximated using coordinate transformation and Bachelier-Levy theorem. For the case of aircraft with non-constant speed, predicted trajectory can be approximated by a large enough number of constant speed segments. Conflict probability of each segment is calculated and the overall conflict probability bounds in look-ahead time are given. Compared with Monte Carlo simulations, the proposed algorithm is accurate for conflict detection and it is useful to detect and avoid conflicts in air traffic management system. -
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